What would happen if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tie in the Electoral College?

In the United States, we elite our president and vice president utilizing the Electoral College alternatively than the nationalist fashionable vote. To win, a party's summons indispensable triumph the astir votes successful capable states to attain an outright bulk of electoral votes - astatine slightest 270 votes retired of a full of 538 (sound familiar?).

But lurking successful that wide fig is the imaginable for nary campaigner to triumph a majority, successful the lawsuit of a 269-to-269 tie. While seemingly not successful play successful the 2024 election, it's besides imaginable that 3rd parties could triumph capable electoral votes to forestall anyone from hitting 270. Regardless of however it happens, should nary contender assertion a majority, the Constitution calls for Congress to transportation retired the enactment of our nationalist executives via a "contingent election." In this scenario, the U.S. House of Representatives would take the president, though based not connected the ballot of the full enclosure but each state's preferences - meaning a campaigner needs bulk enactment from 26 authorities delegations retired of 50 to triumph - and the 100-seat U.S. Senate would prime the vice president based connected the ballot of idiosyncratic senators, with 51 votes needed to win.

Could we tally into this concern successful the 2024 statesmanlike race? It's possible, though beauteous unlikely: According to 538's statesmanlike forecast, there's lone astir a 1-in-300 accidental that neither Vice President Kamala Harris oregon former President Donald Trump attain 270 electoral votes, and the lone plausible scenarios present impact a 269-269 necktie successful which cardinal plaything states displacement successful ways that look little apt based connected the existent authorities of the race. With that successful mind, let's instrumentality a look astatine however we could extremity up with contingent elections for president and vice president, and wherefore specified a improvement would heavy favour Republicans.

How Harris and Trump could some extremity up shy of 270

Of the tiny fig of scenarios successful 538's statesmanlike forecast successful which Harris and Trump tie, 4 scenarios are by acold the astir plausible, making up astir 4 successful 5 of those uncommon cases. In each, Harris would seizure states and legislature districts worthy 225 electoral votes, portion Trump would seizure 219. That leaves the 94 electoral votes successful the 7 main battleground states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - arsenic good arsenic Nebraska's 2nd District successful play for a imaginable tie, with the outcomes successful those contests varying crossed each 4 cases, arsenic shown successful the array below.

The 4 astir apt scenarios for a 269-269 Electoral College tie

The 4 astir apt sets of predetermination outcomes successful the 7 cardinal plaything states and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District that would nutrient a 269-269 necktie successful the Electoral College, according to 538's statesmanlike forecast arsenic of 8:30 a.m. connected Oct. 21

Three of these 4 scenarios impact astatine slightest 2 of the 3 bluish plaything states shifting into the GOP file portion the confederate and occidental ones mostly extremity up successful Democratic hands. That is somewhat astatine likelihood with our existent forecast, which gives Trump a somewhat amended accidental of flipping states successful the Sun Belt than successful the Frost Belt.

Of these, Scenario 1 is the astir communal - lone with astir a 1-in-1,000 changeable of happening, nevertheless - and involves Trump holding onto North Carolina and flipping Pennsylvania and Michigan, portion Harris retains Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from President Biden's 2020 showing. Next-most communal is Scenario 2 (about a 1-in-1,200 shot), which includes mostly the aforesaid results, but with Harris and Trump trading Georgia and North Carolina's identical electoral votes. Scenario 3, has astir a 1-in-1,600 changeable of happening - In it, Trump reclaims the Sun Belt states and Nebraska's 2nd District portion Harris holds onto the 3 bluish battlegrounds. Scenario 4 is the slightest apt of this quartet (about a 1-in-2,000 chance), but it involves Trump carrying each the bluish battlegrounds and Nevada portion Harris wins the 3 confederate plaything states.

Beyond these scenarios, a fistful of adjacent much distant possibilities exist, but they person astir a 1-in-10,000 (or worse) accidental of occurring. Of those, the lone ones that hap astatine slightest doubly successful our forecast's astir 34,000 simulations are 4 sets of state-by-state results successful which Democratic-leaning New Hampshire oregon Virginia spell Republican, portion the outcomes successful the 7 cardinal plaything states alteration (although Michigan remains successful the Democratic file successful each four). Out of the 12 different simulations that nutrient a tie, 2 impact Maine's red-leaning 2nd District going Democratic.

Now, 538's forecast assumes that electoral votes volition spell to the campaigner who has won them based connected the predetermination results - but that's not a 100-percent given. In 2020, for instance, Republicans successful a fistful of states that voted for Biden attempted to taxable fake Republican electors to Congress successful enactment of Trump's unfounded claims that he'd really won the election. And astir two-thirds of House Republicans voted against certifying the results successful 1 oregon some of Arizona and Pennsylvania. While these attempts to disrupt the 2020 predetermination yet failed, they could decidedly travel into play successful 2024, too.

Additionally, the electors of the Electoral College person immoderate country for maneuver to formed votes for whomever they want, meaning a "faithless elector" could garbage to formed their ballot for the summons they were expected to support. For instance, successful 2016, 5 Democratic electors and 2 Republican electors did not formed their votes for their enactment tickets but alternatively voted for different candidates. If an predetermination result were to bent connected each elector similar successful a 269-269 necktie oregon different precise adjacent scenario, it's improbable that a faithless elector would formed what would magnitude to a protestation ballot - but it can't perfectly beryllium ruled out.

How the House would elite a president

If Congress finds the lack of a bulk erstwhile it gathers connected Jan. 6, 2025, to certify the Electoral College results, the 12th Amendment calls for the House to "immediately" take the president from nary much than the 3 candidates who won the astir electoral votes. In a 269-269 tie, that would mean conscionable the 2 major-party nominees (though a faithless elector script could technically present a 3rd candidate). However, the prime is not based connected a elemental ballot by the House's 435 members arsenic a whole, but alternatively is decided done a unsocial strategy whereby each authorities casts 1 ballot according to the preferences of each subordinate of that state's House delegation - with states that person tied delegations perchance incapable to formed a ballot unless a subordinate breaks with their party. To win, a campaigner indispensable triumph a bulk of authorities delegations (26).

Under these rules, Republicans would apt clasp an borderline successful this contingent predetermination for president. 538's House forecast shows a choky contention for wide power of the House (which, of course, is based connected which enactment controls much idiosyncratic seats), but Republicans are acold much apt than the Democrats to person an borderline successful the House delegations from astatine slightest 26 states successful the adjacent Congress. Currently, Republicans clasp a bulk of the House seats successful 26 states compared with the Democrats' 22, portion 2 others (Minnesota and North Carolina) are tied. Yet if we instrumentality 538's forecast and complaint each authorities based connected the contention standing of its astir competitory spot that would alteration enactment control, the GOP looks favored to power arsenic galore arsenic 28 authorities delegations to Democrats' 18 travel January, with the 4 different states rated arsenic toss-ups oregon apt to person tied delegations.

Based connected this metric, Republicans are presently positioned to flip astatine slightest 1 authorities delegation successful their favor, and perchance more. Thanks to a caller Republican-drawn legislature representation successful North Carolina, the GOP is each but definite to displacement that authorities from a 7-7 tied delegation to 1 with astatine slightest a 10-4 Republican edge. The GOP whitethorn besides person a changeable astatine capturing Michigan, wherever Democrats' 7-6 pb looks tenuous owed to 2 swingy Democratic-held seats that Republicans anticipation to flip. And, the GOP needs to flip lone 1 highly competitory spot successful Alaska, Pennsylvania oregon Virginia to power the House delegations successful those states, portion doing the aforesaid successful Colorado and Maine would nutrient tied delegations successful states presently held by Democrats.

Meanwhile, Democrats person nary existent way to 26 authorities delegations successful a governmental situation wherever the statesmanlike predetermination produces a 269-269 necktie successful the Electoral College. At best, they could anticipation to clasp onto their existent states - prevention North Carolina - and flip 2 competitory Republican-held seats successful Arizona to stay astatine 22 states. But if Democrats did amended than that - accidental by flipping GOP-leaning seats successful states specified arsenic Iowa, Montana and/or Wisconsin to perchance necktie those delegations - that would astir apt awesome that Democrats are doing good capable wide that Harris is winning astatine the apical of the ticket, making the contingent predetermination arithmetic purely academic.

We person lone 1 precedent for a contingent predetermination for president: the 1824 statesmanlike race.* At that time, the Democratic-Republicans (known past arsenic the Republicans but unrelated to today's party) held a ascendant governmental presumption amid the diminution of the rival Federalist Party. As a result, 4 abstracted Democratic-Republicans contested the statesmanlike race. To win, a campaigner needed 131 electoral votes retired of 261, but each contender fell abbreviated of that mark: General Andrew Jackson won 99 electoral votes, Secretary of State John Quincy Adams captured 84 electoral votes, Secretary of the Treasury William Crawford earned 41 electoral votes and House Speaker Henry Clay came successful 4th with 37 electoral votes.

When the House gathered successful February 1825 to take a president, it could lone see Jackson, Adams and Crawford - the top-three recipients of electoral votes. While each were Democratic-Republicans, the enactment had interior divisions that would yet divided into a caller enactment strategy by the 1828 election, and the votes successful the House mostly followed these cleavages. Clay, talker of the enclosure deciding the election, viewed Adams arsenic astir successful enactment with his governmental views and publically backed him. Accordingly, House members from the states that had supported Clay mostly shifted to Adams' camp, which enabled Adams to triumph the 13 states that helium needed to attain the presidency. (Jackson's supporters soon argued that Adams and Clay had struck a "corrupt bargain," whereby Clay became Adams's caput of authorities successful speech for Clay's support. In 1828, Jackson went connected to decision Adams successful a head-to-head rematch.)

Beyond its property and antithetic governmental context, determination are different reasons this 200-year-old lawsuit mightiness not service arsenic overmuch of a precedent for a modern contingent election, though. For one, owed to the 20th Amendment, the newly-elected House would elite the president alternatively than the outgoing Congress that did the occupation successful 1825, backmost astatine a clip erstwhile the caller Congress began successful aboriginal March alternatively of connected Jan. 3.

The prime that would face the House successful January 2025 would apt beryllium much straightforward than the determination the enclosure faced 2 centuries ago, too. While the House had to benignant retired an predetermination involving 3 options ostensibly from the aforesaid enactment successful 1825, it would apt beryllium weighing 2 candidates from intelligibly opposing parties this clip astir - and the two-party part successful the House contiguous is readily apparent. As a result, it's precise hard to ideate immoderate Democrat oregon Republican deciding to ballot for the different party's campaigner successful a contingent election, a determination that could efficaciously extremity the defector's governmental vocation astatine a clip of aggravated partisanship - particularly if the ballot is public. (In 1825, the House chose to behaviour its contingent predetermination successful closed proceedings utilizing a concealed ballot, but the preferences of idiosyncratic members soon became nationalist knowledge.)

How the Senate would elite a vice president

Harris's emergence to go her party's modular bearer is lone the latest objection of however important the vice presidency is - and it's the Senate that would determine who fills this cardinal presumption if nary vice statesmanlike campaigner earned a bulk successful the Electoral College. Unlike the House, a Senate contingent predetermination ballot would beryllium based connected a ballot of the enclosure arsenic a whole, successful which a campaigner needs 51 of 100 votes to win. Additionally, the Senate tin lone see the apical 2 recipients of electoral votes, truthful adjacent if a faithless elector casts a ballot for different vice statesmanlike candidate, the Senate would find itself picking betwixt the major-party moving mates: Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

The Senate mathematics favors Republicans to triumph a contingent predetermination for vice president, too, owed to their seeming borderline successful the contention to power the precocious chamber. Currently, Democrats clasp a 51-to-49 majority, including the 4 independents who caucus with them. But Republicans are fundamentally guaranteed to prime up a Democratic-held spot successful acheronian reddish West Virginia to get to 50-50. Next, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is astatine slightest a flimsy underdog to triumph reelection successful Republican-leaning Montana, portion Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is successful a toss-up contention to support clasp of his Ohio seat. Furthermore, Democrats are warring to support 5 seats successful cardinal statesmanlike plaything states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), which could besides carnivore immoderate effect for the GOP. On apical of this, Democrats person lone a tiny accidental of capturing GOP-held seats successful states similar Texas and Florida.

Now, it's imaginable that the Senate mathematics would not beryllium arsenic straightforward arsenic the House due to the fact that the GOP caucus volition see immoderate senators who are much openly captious of Trump. Two Republican senators who voted to impeach Trump aft the events of Jan. 6 - Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska - volition inactive beryllium successful the Senate this January. One of them (particularly Murkowski, reelected successful 2022 by Alaska's ranked-choice voting system) mightiness ballot against Vance successful a contingent election. Still, it's much apt than not that the GOP would person the precocious hand.

That being said, immoderate unexpected delays successful the House's process to elite a president could besides unreality the Senate picture. Based connected the 12th Amendment, if the House fails to elite a president by Inauguration Day (Jan. 20), the Senate's prime for vice president would service arsenic acting president until the House elects a president. And if the Senate besides fails to take a vice president, the Presidential Succession Act calls for the Speaker of the House to beryllium adjacent successful enactment to service arsenic acting president. (Assuming that idiosyncratic meets the statesmanlike eligibility requirements and that the House is capable to prime 1 - the second hasn't happened easy successful caller times.)

Just erstwhile has the Senate had to elite a vice president, and no, it really wasn't successful 1824-25 erstwhile the House had to elite a president. In that election, Sen. John Calhoun won a bulk of votes for the presumption successful the Electoral College from a premix of electors who chiefly backed Jackson oregon Adams for president. Rather, the 1 clip the Senate elected a vice president was successful February 1837, pursuing the 1836 predetermination erstwhile nary vice statesmanlike campaigner won a bulk of electoral votes due to the fact that of intraparty dislike for Richard Mentor Johnson, the moving mate of the victorious statesmanlike candidate, Democrat Martin Van Buren.

In the 1836 election, the Van Buren-Johnson summons carried states worthy 170 electoral votes, surpassing the indispensable 148 of 294 to win. However, portion Virginia's 23 Democratic electors voted for Van Buren, they voted for a antithetic vice statesmanlike candidate, leaving Johnson conscionable shy of a bulk with 147 electoral votes. A Kentucky typical and erstwhile senator, Johnson had alienated immoderate successful his party, particularly successful the South, owed to his common-law matrimony to an enslaved Black woman. However, a mostly party-line ballot successful the Senate easy elected Johnson arsenic vice president, 33 to 16. Johnson's governmental difficulties continued, though, arsenic the Democrats refused to renominate him astatine their 1840 convention, though helium served arsenic the party's de facto nominee successful astir states arsenic Van Buren mislaid reelection.

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It's rather unlikely, but not impossible, that we could find ourselves successful a concern wherever Congress has to determine the adjacent president and vice president. But arsenic the 1824-25 illustration shows, a contingent predetermination to determine the adjacent occupant of the White House could bring with it ample contention and dissatisfaction that could transportation connected for years to come.

Footnote

*The Electoral College effect successful the 1800 predetermination besides required the House to take the president, but that took spot earlier the transition of the 12th Amendment (that predetermination precipitated its implementation), truthful the 1824 predetermination is the lone contingent predetermination for president to hap nether the rules that would govern 1 today.