8 months ago
30
(NewsNation) — In 2020, the statesmanlike predetermination wasn't called for 4 days owed to the clip it took to number ballots successful states crossed the country. Four years later, respective states could find erstwhile the state volition cognize whether former President Donald Trump oregon Vice President Kamala Harris has won the 2024 election.
Trump and Harris stay engaged successful a too-close-to-call conflict with 2 weeks remaining earlier Election Day. With the 2 candidates polling cervix and cervix successful all 7 plaything states, predetermination forecasters tin envision respective scenarios wherever the contention could beryllium determined successful either hours oregon days, with imaginable ineligible challenges to follow.
Pennsylvania secured the White House for President Joe Biden successful 2020 connected the Saturday aft Election Day. NewsNation's spouse Decision Desk HQ was the archetypal enactment to telephone the predetermination for Biden conscionable earlier 9 a.m. ET that day.
The Keystone State has changed however it counts votes pursuing delays successful the 2020 election, but this year, Pennsylvania and different states similar Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona could find erstwhile we cognize who volition go the adjacent president.
“There are quicker paths, and then, determination are dayslong paths,” said Drew McCoy, the president of NewsNation partner Decision Desk HQ.
Georgia again cardinal to predetermination results
Trump is targeting Georgia this rhythm aft Biden flipped the authorities bluish for the archetypal clip successful 28 years by a borderline of 11,179 votes.
Election officials recounted the votes twice successful 2020, each clip reaffirming the archetypal number successful favour of Biden.
“We person present counted legally formed ballots 3 times, and the results stay unchanged,” Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said aft the 3rd recount.
Trump allegedly called Raffensberger and asked him to find capable votes to reverse the results successful his favor. The erstwhile president is presently charged successful authorities tribunal for trying to subvert the state's 2020 election.
This year, Georgia has already collected a grounds fig of aboriginal ballots arsenic some Harris and Trump proceed to run astir the state.
Despite the spotlight connected Georgia, McCoy believes that the authorities could beryllium among the archetypal called connected predetermination night.
McCoy said Trump's easiest way to the presidency is flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania. If Harris tin support Georgia bluish and triumph North Carolina, that dramatically changes the map, helium said.
North Carolina aboriginal voting records
Trump won North Carolina by 1.3% successful 2020, and 4 years later, and McCoy believes Trump needs to transportation it again to triumph successful November.
A Democrat hasn't won the authorities since erstwhile President Barack Obama successful 2008, but polls person shown that Harris is wrong the borderline of mistake with 2 weeks remaining earlier the election.
Like Georgia, North Carolina has experienced grounds levels of aboriginal voting contempt residents trying to retrieve from wide harm caused by the deadly Hurricane Helene.
By McCoy's estimation, Georgia and North Carolina could beryllium called sometime betwixt 10 p.m. and midnight connected predetermination night, which could acceptable the signifier for what happens successful the remainder of the country.
Will Pennsylvania's number beryllium delayed again?
Pennsylvania authorities instrumentality does not licence mail-in ballots to beryllium counted earlier Election Day, which led straight to the 4 days needed to find a victor successful 2020.
It became the epicenter of Trump's "Stop The Steal" run successful which helium alleged mail-in ballots that arrived aft Election Day should not beryllium counted.
The run mounted a bid of ineligible challenges claiming that Republican observers were kept excessively acold from the voting tabulation process successful cities similar Philadelphia, The Associated Press reported. A grounds fig (375,000) of mail-in ballots were received successful the authorities successful 2020, with the bulk of those coming from Democratic voters, according to CBS News.
Republican Secretary of Commonwealth Al Schmidt told CBS News that owed to authorities laws, helium believes the vote-counting process could inactive instrumentality clip to guarantee an close result. But since 2020, Pennsylvania has improved its vote-counting process arsenic new machinery has been introduced that processes ballots much quickly, Schmidt said.
"Our counties are moving nighttime and time to number their voters' votes," Schmidt told CBS News. "They're doing truthful arsenic rapidly arsenic they tin and with integrity."
McCoy believes that portion ballot counting successful Pennsylvania's 67 counties volition necessitate cautious attention, helium expects results to trickle successful during the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning.
But helium said the disparity betwixt the state's Republican and Democratic areas could make immoderate play on the way.
“It’s not unexpected that determination mightiness beryllium immoderate changes successful the pb implicit the people of the night,” McCoy told NewsNation.
Mail-in voting successful Arizona
Arizona, wherever astir 90% of ballots were mailed in during the 2020 election, historically takes longer to telephone owed to the clip it takes to find which ballots tin beryllium counted based connected the postmark.
Biden won Arizona by conscionable 0.3% successful 2020. Maricopa County, wherever overmuch of the Phoenix metro country is located, is expected to garner the crux of the predetermination attraction 4 years aft Biden won the county by 45,109 votes.
In 2020, aft Trump claimed the predetermination was stolen, Arizona Republicans commissioned a manus recount of Maricopa County's 2.1 cardinal ballots, which affirmed Biden had defeated Trump.
Election experts expect another adjacent contention successful Arizona, keeping involvement successful the authorities high.
Delays could propulsion the contention into a captious presumption if the authorities is needed to unafraid triumph for either candidate.
Other factors connected Election Day
Voter turnout could besides assistance find the timeframe for a winner, according to NewsNation governmental exertion and "The Hill Sunday" big Chris Stirewalt.
Turnout numbers for the upcoming predetermination should beryllium known by 9 p.m. ET connected predetermination night, which could supply clues astir which candidates could payment astir and erstwhile a victor volition beryllium determined.
Stirewalt besides believes that the scrutiny astir predetermination officials successful 2020 could spill implicit to this election, which mightiness dilatory things down. He besides expects ineligible challenges to beryllium mounted again, which would besides pb to delays.
With truthful galore factors successful play, establishing immoderate consciousness of certainty proves to beryllium difficult.
“If we’re going to beryllium precise honest, past we person to accidental we don’t truly know,” Stirewalt told NewsNation. “We person to beryllium prepared for a truly speedy nighttime oregon a agelong week, but we surely can’t regularisation either of those out.”
