9 months ago
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(NewsNation) — The contention betwixt Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is nearly tied up of Tuesday night's debate successful Philadelphia.
The latest polling from the New York Times/Siena College revealed Trump leads Harris by conscionable 1 point. Three different polls posted wrong the past week — RMG Research/Napolitan News National Survey (+2), Outward Intelligence survey (+4) and Emerson College Polling (+4) — each reflected Harris starring Trump.
However, Harris maintains a 3.5-point pb nationally crossed each polls, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's polling average.
What's astatine stake?
Harris and Trump will quadrate disconnected Tuesday for their first presidential debate ahead of the November election. It's besides the archetypal clip the 2 volition conscionable face-to-face.
As Harris maintains an mean nationalist pb implicit Trump, DDHQ’s latest forecast gives Harris a 56% accidental of winning the presidency.
However, the predetermination rhythm had already taken antithetic turns, putting added unit connected some candidates to present a beardown performance.
Plus, erstwhile Trump debated President Joe Biden little than 3 months ago, the erstwhile president was facing a campaigner who was trailing down him successful the polls. The concern has changed drastically heading into Tuesday’s meeting.
The caller canvass conducted by The New York Times/Siena College recovered that 28% of voters consciousness they inactive request to cognize much astir Harris earlier making a voting determination portion lone 9% consciousness that mode astir Trump.
It besides reflected a 13-point Trump pb connected the economy, portion Harris maintained a 15-point pb connected abortion.
Millions of Americans are expected to tune successful Tuesday nighttime to a 90-minute statement that could precise good determine this election.
Harris leads nationally crossed the board
Harris' pb implicit Trump extends crossed aggregate nationalist polling sites. FiveThirtyEight polling shows Harris starring Trump by 2.8 percent points; RealClearPolitics polling reflects Harris has a 1.4-point lead; and Morning Consult polling shows Harris starring Trump by 3 percent points among apt voters.
Gender influences polling divide
New polls amusement Harris faces a large challenge successful winning implicit antheral voters and is losing men by a bigger borderline than she’s winning women successful cardinal states specified arsenic Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.
The sex spread betwixt Democrats and Republicans isn’t new, but it’s becoming particularly pronounced successful the toss-up contention for president.
Trump’s problems with pistillate voters are good known, but newer pollings amusement that Harris has conscionable arsenic large of a occupation with antheral voters successful immoderate states.
Male voters person shifted toward Trump and distant from Harris successful Pennsylvania, 1 of the biggest prizes of the 2024 electoral map.
A new CNN/SSRS poll showed that Trump led Harris among apt antheral voters successful Pennsylvania by 15 points — 55% to 40% — and Harris led Trump among pistillate voters successful the authorities by 11 points — 53% to 42%.
In comparison, a CNN/SSRS canvass conducted successful March showed Trump with a smaller pb implicit President Biden among antheral voters successful Pennsylvania: 51% to 41%.
Male voters are besides swinging hard to Trump and distant from Harris successful Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, California, Ohio and Florida.
The caller survey of apt voters successful Nevada showed that Trump had an 18-point pb among antheral voters, 57% to 39%, portion Harris had a 16-point pb among pistillate voters, 55% to 39%.
An East Carolina University canvass conducted Aug. 26-28 among apt voters successful North Carolina recovered Trump starring by 9 points among antheral voters — 51.6% to 42.8% — and Harris starring by astir 5 points among pistillate voters — 49.5% to 45.1%.
In Georgia, Trump has a 10-point pb among antheral voters, 53% to 43%, and Harris has a 10-point pb among pistillate voters, 53% to 43%, according to a CNN/SSRS survey.
Even successful California, a Democratic stronghold, a caller survey by The Hill/Emerson College Polling shows Harris losing enactment among antheral voters, though she inactive maintains a sizeable pb implicit Trump among California’s liberal-leaning men.
Male enactment for Harris has dropped substantially. The 30-point vantage she enjoyed among California antheral voters has dropped to a 20-point advantage.
In Ohio, Trump present has a 26-point pb among men, and successful Florida, helium maintains a 12-point pb among men.
How does Biden vs Trump polling compare
Biden’s performance astatine the archetypal statement successful June was a standout infinitesimal for Democrats who had already expressed concerns astir his intelligence acuity. The 81-year-old stumbled done his words and appeared confused astatine times. Trump, 78, also faced disapproval for making aggregate mendacious statements.
A CNN flash poll of statement watchers recovered that 67% of those surveyed said Trump won the debate, compared to 33% who said Biden won.
Biden ultimately dropped retired of the contention connected July 21 and endorsed Harris for the party’s nomination, which she secured successful August. She introduced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her moving mate soon after.
On the eve of the debate, Trump held a slender nationalist person of 0.4 percent points implicit Biden, according to The Hill/DDHQ. Two weeks pursuing the performance, Trump was beating Biden by 1.3 points.
By the clip Biden dropped retired of the race, Trump was starring Biden by 4 percent points.
Similar patterns were seen successful different polling averages. In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, for instance, Trump’s vantage has much than doubled, from 1.5 percent points connected June 27 to 3.3 successful August.
Still, portion Biden’s disastrous show successful June stole headlines, Democrats were speedy to enactment that Trump was by nary means a world-beater that night. Immediately aft the debate, Biden surrogates highlighted respective remarks by the erstwhile president — including connected “Black jobs” and termination being conducted “even aft birth” — but they were rapidly forgotten due to the fact that of Biden’s self-inflicted wounds.
