(NewsNation)  — The 2024 statesmanlike election is inactive anybody's game, but polling suggests Democrats are facing an uphill conflict to support power of the U.S. Senate.

Republicans person to triumph conscionable 1 of 2 competitory races successful reddish states — Montana oregon Ohio — to unafraid a surefire majority, assuming everything other goes arsenic projected.

NewsNation’s predetermination partner, Decision Desk HQ, shows Republicans with a 71% accidental of winning the Senate arsenic of Oct. 31.

Scott Tranter, the manager of information subject astatine DDHQ, recently explained what goes into that projection: "We person implicit 20,000 polls successful our database from this cycle, arsenic good arsenic past show and elector registration [data]."

Other variables, similar fundraising amounts, besides spell into the model, Tranter said.

In this election, GOP candidates are favored to flip bluish seats successful Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. Two different Democratic incumbents — Senator Tammy Baldwin from Wisconsin and Senator Bob Casey from Pennsylvania — are successful intimately contested races.

Meanwhile, Democrats volition effort to propulsion disconnected upsets successful Missouri and Texas, hoping to unseat 2 salient GOP senators — Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley — some of whom are successful person races than they'd prefer.

Here are the current likelihood successful 13 cardinal Senate races.

Arizona: Kari Lake vs. Rep. Ruben Gallego

In this operation photo, Kari Lake speaks successful Dallas, Aug. 5, 2022, left, and Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is seen successful the Capitol, July 14, 2022, successful Washington. (AP Photo)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Gallego (D): 82%
• Lake (R): 18%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Gallego (D): 49.7%
• Lake (R): 43.5%

What to know: Trump-backed erstwhile TV anchor Kari Lake is eyeing an Arizona Senate spot aft coming up abbreviated successful her 2022 bid for governor, but polling suggests she has a pugnacious elevation to climb.

As precocious arsenic July, Lake and U.S. Rep Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., were wrong 3 points of each other, but since then, Gallego has widened the borderline to much than six points. He's besides raised considerably much money: implicit $56 cardinal versus Lake's $21 million.

Florida: Sen. Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), left, and erstwhile Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) are successful a choky contention for Florida's Senate seat.

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Scott (R): 75%
• Mucarsel-Powell (D): 25%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Scott (R): 49.5%
• Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44.8%

What to know: Once a hotly contested plaything state, Florida present leans Republican. That bodes good for GOP Senator Rick Scott, the incumbent, who won by a slim 10,000 ballot borderline successful 2018.

Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a erstwhile typical from Miami, volition person to flooded a astir 5-point polling spread and a $10 cardinal spending disadvantage to flip the spot blue.

Maryland: Larry Hogan vs. Angela Alsobrooks

On the left, campaigner for Maryland Senate Angela Alsobrooks speaks during time 2 of the 2024 Democratic National Convention successful Chicago connected Tuesday, August 20, 2024. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images). On the right, Former Maryland politician and and Republican Senate campaigner Larry Hogan speaks during a run lawsuit astatine the VFW Post 9619 successful Morningside, Maryland. (Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Alsobrooks (D): 99%
• Hogan (R): 1%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Alsobrooks (D): 53.8%
• Hogan (R): 41.0%

What to know: In August, an AARP poll showed Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and erstwhile GOP Governor Larry Hogan successful a dormant heat, but the contention hasn't been peculiarly adjacent since then. Maryland hasn't had a Republican U.S. legislator since 1987.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

This operation photograph of Michigan Senate candidates shows Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., successful Detroit, Aug. 6, 2024, left, and erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., Aug. 6, 2024, successful Lake Orion, Mich. (AP Photo)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Slotkin (D): 67%
• Rogers (R): 33%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Slotkin (D): 48.1%
• Rogers (R): 45.1%

What to know: U.S. Rep Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., has outspent her GOP opponent, erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers, by much than 5 to 1, yet the contention remains tight. Rogers has narrowed the polling spread successful caller weeks, but Slotkin inactive holds a three-point advantage, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Missouri: Sen. Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce

Republican Sen. Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce engaged successful an impromptu showdown astatine the Missouri State Fair. The candidates person been warring implicit a imaginable debate. (Kacen Bayless/The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Hawley (R): 89%
• Kunce (D): 11%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Hawley (R): 51.5%
• Kunce (D): 45.2%

What to know: Republican incumbent Josh Hawley has go 1 of the much recognizable figures connected the caller American right, but lawyer Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran, is trying to alteration that. To bash so, Kunce volition person to dramatically defy expectations successful a authorities that backed Donald Trump by much than 15 points successful 2020.

The 2 are set to debate connected Thursday, Oct. 31, hosted by NewsNation section affiliate KTVI in St. Louis. The statement is scheduled to statesman astatine 7 p.m. CT.

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, left, and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Sheehy (R): 74%
• Tester (D): 26%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Sheehy (R): 50.0%
• Tester (D): 45.2%

What to know: Senator Jon Tester, the incumbent, is the astir susceptible Democrat this rhythm and is present considered an underdog against GOP challenger Tim Sheehy. The crushed is reasonably straightforward: Montana is simply a solidly reddish authorities that Trump won by much than 16 points successful 2020.

"[Tester's] reputation as a straight-shooting, authentic, and profoundly rooted agrarian Montanan arguably matters little than ever successful a highly nationalized electoral situation and successful a Montana that has changed dramatically since his past tally successful 2018," Kal Munis, a governmental idiosyncratic and Montana native, wrote successful a recent Brookings article.

Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown

US Senate campaigner Sam Brown, left, and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Rosen (D): 80%
• Brown (R): 20%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Rosen (D): 48.9%
• Brown (R): 43.3%

What to watch: Republican statesmanlike candidates person been gaining crushed successful Nevada successful caller elections, truthful overmuch truthful that it has go a morganatic plaything state. But losing by little and winning are 2 antithetic things.

Republican Adam Laxalt came up short successful his 2022 Senate bid, losing to Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Now, polling suggests Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen is heavy favored to clasp her spot against Republican challenger Sam Brown.

New Mexico: Nella Domenici vs. Sen. Martin Heinrich

Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich (left) and Republican challenger Nella Domenici (right)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Heinrich (D): 94%
• Domenici (R): 6%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Heinrich (D): 50.5%
• Domenici (R): 39.2%

What to watch: Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich has raised much than doubly arsenic overmuch arsenic GOP challenger Nella Domenici, the girl of the past New Mexico Republican elected to the Senate.

Domenici volition person to propulsion disconnected a large upset to get elected successful a authorities that Joe Biden carried by much than 10 points successful 2020.

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno

This operation photograph shows Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Oct. 26, 2023, connected Capitol Hill successful Washington, left, and Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, a Republican campaigner for Senate, successful Westlake, Ohio, March 19, 2024. (AP Photo)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Moreno (R): 54%
• Brown (D): 46%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Moreno (R): 47.7%
• Brown (D): 46.9%

What to know: Polls suggest Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown could beryllium successful occupation against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. A fewer elections ago, Ohio was a cardinal battleground state, but since then, it's grown progressively red.

"There's been respective polls implicit the past week that person [Moreno] anyplace from 1 to 3 points ahead, connected apical of the information it looks similar Donald Trump's going to astir apt triumph the authorities by 5 to 7 points," Tranter told NewsNation's Markie Martin connected Monday.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey vs. David McCormick

This operation of photos taken successful Pennsylvania shows Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., left, astatine a run event, Sept. 13, 2024, successful Wilkes-Barre, and David McCormick, the Republican nominee for Senate successful Pennsylvania, astatine a run event, April 25, 2024, successful Harrisburg. (AP Photo)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Casey (D): 72%
• McCormick (R): 28%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Casey (D): 48.0%
• McCormick (R): 45.5%

What to know: Businessman David McCormick is backmost aft narrowly losing to Dr. Mehmet Oz successful the Republican superior predetermination for the Senate backmost successful 2022. McCormick was trailing by astir 7 points successful aboriginal September but has since chopped Democratic incumbent Bob Casey's pb to little than 3 points.

Casey's warfare thorax is astir doubly arsenic big, and he's outraised McCormick $52 cardinal to $27 million.

Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz vs. Rep. Colin Allred

(AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File/J. Scott Applewhite)

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Cruz (R): 75%
• Allred (D): 25%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Cruz (R): 49.1%
• Allred (D): 45.9%

What to watch: Former statesmanlike hopeful and existent Senator Ted Cruz is facing a pugnacious conflict for his spot successful the Lone Star State. If Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred tin propulsion it off, it would beryllium a large upset. Current polls suggest that's unlikely, though not impossible.

"Ted Cruz won his past contention by 2.6% against Beto O'Rourke six years ago, and close now, he's polling amended than that," Tranter said.

West Virginia: Jim Justice vs. Glenn Elliott

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and Glenn Elliott are facing disconnected for the Senate spot successful West Virginia.

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Justice (R): >99%
• Elliott (D): <1%

What to know: Republicans are each but guaranteed to prime up outgoing Senator Joe Manchin's seat. Trump carried the authorities by astir 30 points successful 2020, meaning the Senate campaigner with "R" by their sanction has a beauteous bully shot.

That means West Virginia GOP Governor Jim Justice is apt headed to the U.S. Senate. He's outspent his Democratic opponent, Glenn Elliott, by 5 to 1.

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde vs. Sen. Tammy Baldwin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, left, (D-Wis.) speaks earlier President Biden astatine the Earth Rider Brewery Jan. 25, 2024, successful Superior, Wis. Eric Hovde, right, a Republican businessman and existent property mogul announces helium is for moving U.S. Senate against incumbent Baldwin, Feb. 20, 2024, successful Madison, Wis.

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 31):

• Baldwin (D): 63%
• Hovde (R): 37%

Decision Desk HQ polling averages (as of Oct. 31):

• Baldwin (D): 48.2%
• Hovde (R): 47.7%

What to know: Wisconsin is different authorities wherever thing could happen. Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin has a major fundraising advantage but conscionable narrowly leads successful the polls. GOP challenger Eric Hovde, a businessman, presently has the momentum.

At the commencement of October, Hovde was down by much than 4 points; now, that spread is little than fractional a point, according to Decision Desk HQ.