(NewsNation) — The 2024 statesmanlike race tin beryllium summed up successful a azygous phrase: "It's anybody's ballgame."

NewsNation's predetermination spouse Decision Desk HQ shows erstwhile President Donald Trump with a 52% accidental of winning and Vice President Kamala Harris with a 48% accidental arsenic of midday Oct. 25.

Famed polling adept Nate Silver currently shows Harris with a 1.3-point pb nationally but somewhat down successful respective cardinal battleground states.

"In an predetermination wherever the 7 battleground states are each polling wrong a percent constituent oregon two, 50-50 is the lone liable forecast," Silver wrote successful a recent New York Times op-ed.

Those seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — volition yet determine the election.

Here's what the polls presently amusement successful each.

Note: This communicative volition beryllium updated arsenic polling changes.

Arizona

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Trump: 58%
• Harris: 42%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Trump: 49.3%
• Harris: 47.3%

Who has the momentum?

Silver's exemplary suggests Harris had a flimsy pb successful Arizona astatine the extremity of August. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed the 2 candidates tied arsenic precocious arsenic mid-September.

Over the past month, Trump has opened up a constrictive two-point vantage successful the state.

What to watch:

About 1 successful 4 Arizona voters are Latino, and Trump has made inroads with that group, peculiarly among men.

Harris volition effort to amended connected Democrats' show with suburbanites astir Phoenix, peculiarly "John McCain Republicans," galore of whom person rejected Trump.

Georgia

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Trump: 62%
• Harris: 38%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Trump: 49.0%
• Harris: 47.6%

Who has the momentum?

Harris had a flimsy vantage successful aboriginal September, but since then, Trump has pulled ahead. He presently holds a +1.4 polling pb according to Silver's exemplary and a +1.6 vantage per FiveThirtyEight.

What to watch:

If Trump has improved among Black voters, as polls show, past that volition apt amusement up successful Georgia, 1 of the astir racially divers plaything states.

Meanwhile, Harris needs to execute good successful the increasing suburbs astir metro Atlanta, which person turned progressively bluish successful caller elections.

Michigan

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Harris: 58%
• Trump: 42%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Harris: 48.1%
• Trump: 47.3%

Who has the momentum?

A period ago, polls showed Harris with a two-point pb successful the state; now, the 2 candidates are separated by less than a point.

What to watch:

Michigan is location to much than 200,000 Muslim registered voters, and implicit the past year, Muslims' enactment for the Democratic Party has dropped. Much of that is due to frustration astatine the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

It remains to beryllium seen however galore of those voters volition displacement Trump's way, but they could person a large interaction connected the outcome.

Nevada

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Harris: 52%
• Trump: 48%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Harris: 48.0%
• Trump: 47.7%

Who has the momentum?

Nevada is different authorities wherever Trump has precocious closed the gap, and he's present wrong 0.3 points, according to Silver's model. A period ago, Harris had a one-point lead.

What to watch:

Like Arizona, Nevada has a important stock of Latino voters, which could plaything things either mode successful the state's colonisation center, Clark County.

Both candidates person tried to entreaty to the state's work and hospitality workers, promising to eliminate taxes connected tips.

North Carolina

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Trump: 66%
• Harris: 34%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Trump: 48.8%
• Harris: 47.6%

Who has the momentum?

Trump presently holds a 1.3-point polling advantage, a flimsy betterment from his 0.6-point pb a period ago, according to FiveThirtyEight.

What to watch:

Trump has won North Carolina successful each of the past 2 elections, but Democrats person been gaining ground, peculiarly successful large colonisation centers similar Mecklenburg and Wake counties.

If Harris tin amended successful those areas, Democrats person a accidental to triumph the authorities for the archetypal clip since Barack Obama successful 2008.

Pennsylvania

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Trump: 52%
• Harris: 48%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Trump: 48.2%
• Harris: 48.0%

Who has the momentum?

Pennsylvania is the swingiest plaything authorities and apt the astir important. At this point, the 2 are astir tied. In aboriginal September, Harris and Trump were cervix and cervix earlier Harris opened up a flimsy pb arsenic the period progressed.

Since then, Trump has pulled adjacent and presently holds a 0.2-point polling lead, per Silver's model.

What to watch:

In 10 of the past 12 elections, the victor of Pennsylvania has gone connected to triumph the race. In immoderate ways, it's the spot wherever each predetermination communicative collides — a microcosm of the U.S. astatine large.

Both candidates are competing for the state's fast-growing Hispanic community. Turnout among Black voters successful the heavy Democratic Philadelphia country could besides play an outsized role. There are besides the plaything counties themselves, historically blue-collar areas similar Erie County that could spell either way.

Wisconsin

Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):

• Trump: 53%
• Harris: 47%

Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):

• Harris: 48.5%
• Trump: 48.0%

Who has the momentum?

Harris has a half-point pb according to Silver's model, but again, that's tighter compared to a period agone erstwhile she led by astir 2 points.

What to watch:

The traditionally reddish Milwaukee suburbs, the so-called "WOW counties," person go little truthful successful caller elections. If Harris tin physique connected Democrats' gains successful those areas — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — she could triumph the state.

On the different hand, if Democratic voters don't crook retired successful Milwaukee County — and Trump holds his pb successful agrarian areas — the erstwhile president could recreate his 2016 triumph that saw the authorities crook reddish for the archetypal clip since 1984.