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Could lodging prices impact the result of the 2024 statesmanlike election? Property values tin power homeowning voters to power governmental parties, according to a research article co-authored by Fresno State Professor Andres Jauregui, manager of the Gazarian Real Estate Center astatine the Craig School of Business.
“Housing Performance and the Electorate,” co-written by Erin Cifci of Austin Peay State University, Alan Tidwell of the University of Alabama, J. Sherword Clements of Virginia Tech and Jauregui, was published successful the Journal of Real Estate Research.
Jauregui and his colleagues tested the proposal that voters are motivated to ballot for the enactment they comprehend arsenic beneficial to their spot values. The survey analyzed however section lodging markets affected county-level voting patterns crossed the United States during the past six statesmanlike elections.
“Our survey confirms that voters are importantly acrophobic astir the worth of their homes and volition bespeak these concerns astatine the polls,” Jauregui said.
The researchers recovered a beardown correlation betwixt lodging prices and elector behavior. Voters successful counties with beardown existent property prices successful the 4 years starring to an predetermination were much apt to power parties to enactment incumbents. In contrast, voters successful counties with declining existent property prices were much apt to power parties to enactment challengers.
The nonfiction said the correlation is strongest successful the years closest to an predetermination and successful counties with the highest spot values. Swing counties wherever the bulk ballot often switches betwixt parties are peculiarly delicate to changes successful section existent property prices.
Will the existent precocious terms of existent property plaything the predetermination successful favour of incumbent candidates? Jauregui said the effect connected voting patterns is subtle, but successful important plaything counties, dependable spot values mightiness marque a difference.
“The empirical grounds indicates that lodging marketplace show successful plaything counties could beryllium much of a determining origin than antecedently thought,” Jauregui said.
The survey is the archetypal probe of however spot values impact voting, and it has attracted sum from The American Prospect, Newsweek, Realtor, AOL, the UK-based website This Is Money and different media outlets.
