Is Elon Musk right about widespread Social Security fraud?

(NewsNation) — Elon Musk said helium mightiness person uncovered "the biggest fraud successful history" erstwhile helium recovered millions of radical implicit property 100 listed successful a Social Security database, but that's not what's going on.

On Sunday, Musk posted a illustration connected X allegedly showing much than 20 cardinal radical implicit 100 years aged listed successful "the Social Security database."

"These are the numbers of radical successful each property bucket with the decease tract acceptable to FALSE!," Musk said, joking that "a batch of vampires" are collecting Social Security.

He added, "There are FAR much 'eligible' societal information numbers than determination are citizens," and said it mightiness beryllium "the biggest fraud successful history."

While it's existent that determination are lone 90,000 radical over 100 surviving successful the U.S., that doesn't mean millions of dormant beneficiaries are receiving Social Security checks.

Records with incomplete decease info are a well-known, long-standing situation for the Social Security Administration, but a 2023 bureau inspector wide report recovered "almost none" of the 18.9 cardinal radical listed arsenic 100 oregon older were receiving benefits.

"What Musk has tweeted is not chiefly an illustration of fraud but much similar the messy databases kept by Social Security," said Alex Nowrasteh, the vice president for economical and societal argumentation studies astatine the libertarian Cato Institute.

Nowrasteh said erstwhile idiosyncratic turns 100, the authorities manually checks to marque definite they are inactive live and not receiving other benefits. He pointed retired that Social Security fraud is simply a "very tiny issue" compared to the program's other challenges.

Martin O'Malley, the erstwhile Social Security commissioner nether Joe Biden, laughed erstwhile asked astir Musk's fraud claims Monday.

"He doesn't cognize what he's talking about," O'Malley told NewsNation's Chris Cuomo.

Here's what's going connected with Social Security's decease information and wherefore it's not needfully an illustration of rampant fraud.

Are millions of dormant radical inactive receiving Social Security benefits?

A Social Security database known arsenic the "Numident" — which is what Musk is believed to beryllium referring to — shows acold much centenarians than are really alive, but that doesn't mean they're being sent checks.

The inspector general's 2023 audit recovered that Social Security's Numident included astir 18.9 cardinal radical listed arsenic 100 oregon older but not dormant — acold much than the 86,000 centenarians surviving successful the U.S. astatine the clip of the review.

However, "almost none" of the 18.9 cardinal were receiving Social Security payments, the study concluded. Instead, lone 44,000 radical implicit 100 were getting benefits — person to the existent centenarian population.

"This hardly feels similar large potatoes," economist Justin Wolfers wrote successful response to Musk's findings connected X.

The inaccurate decease accusation apt stems from the information that individuals died decades earlier the usage of physics decease reporting, according to the inspector wide report.

Incomplete oregon inaccurate info tin origin discrepancies crossed the assorted databases Social Security relies on, but it doesn't mean there's rampant fraud.

With that said, leaving the occupation unsolved could let "for a wider scope of imaginable abuse," the 2023 audit noted.

Correcting the errors would travel astatine a cost, anyplace from $5.5 to $9.7 million, according to the Social Security Administration.

President Trump speaks arsenic helium is joined by Elon Musk, and his lad X Æ A-Xii, successful the Oval Office astatine the White House connected Feb. 11, 2025, successful Washington.

Does Social Security mistakenly wage radical aft they die?

While the standard of the overpayment occupation is astir surely smaller than Musk has implied, improperly paying dormant beneficiaries does happen.

An inspector wide study from Nov. 2021 recovered that Social Security issued astir $298 cardinal successful payments aft decease to astir 24,000 beneficiaries. The bureau recovered astir $84 cardinal of that, meaning it had not recovered astir $214 cardinal of the payments.

That doesn't mean fraud is the crushed those payments went out. Instead, the study recovered that it was mostly due to the fact that Social Security technicians did not travel policy.

A abstracted 2015 audit of Social Security recovered conscionable 3 confirmed instances of employment fraud successful a illustration of 6.5 cardinal deceased individuals.

O'Malley said the main fraud interest is erstwhile radical telephone successful and effort to power accounts, hijacking benefits from the living, not the dead.

"That's wherever astir of the fraud comes from," O'Malley told Cuomo.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced successful January that it had recouped much than $31 cardinal successful national payments that improperly went to dormant people.

That effect came arsenic portion of a five-month aviator programme aft Congress gave the Treasury impermanent entree to the Social Security Administration's "Full Master Death File."

"These results are conscionable the extremity of the iceberg," the Treasury’s Fiscal Assistant Secretary David Lebryk said successful a quality release. “Congress granting imperishable entree to the Full Death Master File volition importantly trim fraud, amended programme integrity, and amended safeguard payer dollars.”

The Treasury said it expects to retrieve implicit $215 cardinal during the three-year entree period, which runs from Dec. 2023 done 2026.

How large of a occupation are overpayments?

The Social Security Administration issues implicit $1 trillion successful payment payments annually, which means adjacent flimsy errors tin outgo taxpayers billions.

A July 2024 report from the agency's inspector wide called improper payments a "long-standing challenge" and said much needs to beryllium done to hole the problem.

The audit recovered that the Social Security Administration sent astir $71.8 cardinal successful improper payments betwixt fiscal years 2015 and 2022 — astir of which were overpayments.

Still, the astir $72 cardinal full represents 0.84% of the astir $8.6 trillion paid retired implicit the period.

While that is simply a batch of money, Social Security's improper outgo complaint is considered comparatively debased compared to different large-scale programs.

"If you had to prime the places successful the national authorities wherever mistake rates are high, Social Security would beryllium adjacent the bottommost of the list, not adjacent the top," said Charles Blahous, a elder probe strategist astatine the Mercatus Center astatine George Mason University who specializes successful Social Security.

By comparison, the Medicaid improper outgo complaint was implicit 5% successful fiscal twelvemonth 2024, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

CMS noted that improper payments are typically related to administrative mistakes and don't needfully bespeak fraud oregon abuse.

What's the large occupation with Social Security?

Social Security is facing a fiscal shortfall, and national lawmakers are moving retired of clip to hole it.

Without reform, the program's spot money could beryllium depleted successful astir a decade. At that point, retirees could spot their monthly benefits slashed by astir 20% percent.

Cracking down connected Social Security mistakes is simply a bully thing, but it won't needfully lick the larger fiscal issue, Blahous pointed out.

"Social Security’s fiscal problems aren’t being caused by the improper payments but by ineligible ones exceeding what workers’ taxation contributions tin fund," Blahous said.

Nowrasteh agreed.

"We decidedly cannot suffer show of the information that Social Security is facing precise superior fiscal problems, and reductions successful fraud are not going to marque a meaningful difference," helium said.