The statesmanlike contention is tight, and neither campaigner has a wide lead. But successful the last play earlier Election Day, some Vice President Harris and erstwhile President Trump are acceptable to state victory. 

Both campaigns accidental they person laid the groundwork to win. Both deliberation they person the close rationale for wherefore they should win.

The Harris run says their crushed crippled volition assistance spot them through, pointing to much than 2,500 staffers and volunteers successful cardinal states. They besides accidental issues similar termination on with Harris's favorability rating, which is respective points higher than Trump’s successful the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill mean of polls, volition assistance catapult the vice president to the White House. 

At the aforesaid time, the Trump run points to polls that amusement that voters don't deliberation the state is heading successful the close direction, highlighting the caller rising costs and the wide “vibe” of the economy. 

They besides accidental Harris is tied to President Biden, whose ain support standing is underwater. Historically, they accidental erstwhile an incumbent has a debased support standing — Biden is astatine 40 percent — the opposing enactment prevails. They besides consciousness bully astir their registration and aboriginal ballot numbers. 

“I deliberation some sides person valid reasons for however and wherefore a triumph is possible,” said 1 Democratic strategist adjacent to the Harris campaign. “That's portion of the crushed wherefore it's truthful adjacent and wherefore neither broadside has the advantage. Every canvass is ridiculously close.” 

A canvass released by Gallup this week showed that astir 49 percent of Americans person a favorable presumption of Harris compared to 44 percent for Trump. Harris’s moving mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, besides has a higher favorable standing astatine 45 percent than Trump’s moving mate, Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), who is astatine 39 percent. 

Those numbers bode good for Harris, Gallup noted, due to the fact that candidates with higher favorability ratings person typically won caller statesmanlike elections. 

“Honestly, there’s immoderate fig of information points and reasons I deliberation Harris volition win, but there’s besides the Potter Stewart analogy: You whitethorn not beryllium capable to specify a winning campaign, but you cognize it erstwhile you spot it,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said. “Harris continues to battalion stadiums, make excitement, portion controlling the media narrative." 

“It’s a high-wire enactment she’s pulling disconnected close now, and for the past 100 days, and she’s making it look easy.” 

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has leaned into termination arsenic an issue, and Democrats accidental that was a astute tack.

They constituent to a caller NBC News canvass that showed apt voters consciousness “strongly” astir abortion. When respondents were asked if determination was 1 contented they felt powerfully astir that would determine their ballot for oregon against a candidate, 22 percent said abortion, outranking different issues including immigration, protecting ideology and adjacent outgo of living.

Since the Supreme Court’s determination overturning Roe v. Wade successful 2022, Democrats person successfully rallied women astir the issue, turning retired grounds numbers of voters during the 2022 midterm elections. And that momentum shows nary motion of slowing, Democrats say. 

“So far, women are inactive voting astatine post-Dobbs level, and determination are nary corresponding sights yet of the ‘bro ballot surge’ they person been targeting,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale. “Harris has a beardown closing connection connected the economy, abortion, and democracy, portion Trump is flailing from grievance to grievance, playing dress-up garbage man, and threatening to sprout people.” 

But the Trump run says their connection connected apical issues including the system and migration has been resonating with voters, a constituent adjacent Republicans who aren’t supporting Trump acknowledge. 

“When he’s connected connection and he’s talking astir the issues, his points ace done the sound much than Kamala’s do,” 1 GOP strategist said. “I inactive can’t archer you what her imaginativeness is.” 

Karoline Leavitt, nationalist property caput for the Trump campaign, said Republicans person besides “made monolithic elector registration gains, and we are acold outperforming successful our stock of the aboriginal ballot comparative to 2 oregon 4 years agone crossed each battleground states.” 

“Voters cognize that Kamala Harris has destroyed our country, but President Trump volition hole it erstwhile helium ends inflation, secures the border, and makes America beardown again — and that is wherefore helium is well-positioned for victory,” Leavitt added. 

Republicans accidental they person successfully tied Harris to Biden, who remains highly unpopular with the American electorate, which serves arsenic a reddish emblem to governmental observers. 

“The bottommost enactment is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d person to interruption history,” CNN’s Harry Enten, who analyzes predetermination data, said this week connected the cablegram network. Enten besides pointed to caller polls that showed a bulk of Americans deliberation the state is headed successful the incorrect direction. 

“There isn’t a azygous clip successful which 28 percent of the American nationalist thinks the state is going connected the close way successful which the incumbent enactment really won,” Enten said.

Republicans besides support Trump has besides made important inroads with Hispanic and Black men. 

“It’s a substance of whether they tin get them retired to the polls now,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who has worked connected caller statesmanlike campaigns. “If helium hits his people with those 2 subsets of voters, look out.” 

Speakers astatine a Trump rally successful New York City past play caused a disturbance erstwhile a comedian made inappropriate jokes astir Latinos and Puerto Rico. 

On Friday, Harris run aides said they saw the rally break through to undecided voters, giving them a changeable successful the limb successful the last days of the campaign. The officials said interior information shows Harris winning by treble digits among voters who conscionable decided who to enactment successful caller days. 

The Harris run besides got bully quality connected Saturday aft a Des Moines Register/Mediacom canvass successful Iowa showed Harris with a three-point pb implicit Trump. 

The canvass of much than 800 voters who were surveyed showed Harris implicit Trump 47 percent to 44 percent. While the canvass is wrong the borderline of error, it revealed a important displacement from a September survey successful the authorities which showed Trump starring by 4 points. 

The Trump run instantly formed the canvass arsenic a important outlier, but it inactive gave the Harris campy a jolt of momentum.

A 2nd Democratic strategist said portion Trump had been seen arsenic the campaigner with the momentum implicit the past mates of weeks, Harris has seen a turning constituent of sorts successful the past respective days. 

“I deliberation we are precisely wherever we request to be,” the strategist said. 

But Vale and different Democrats person concluded 1 thing: No 1 knows however it volition end. 

“It’s going to beryllium close, and a grind to the finish,” Vale said. “But the saying ‘Close lone counts successful horseshoes and manus grenades’ besides applies to the Electoral College.”