Final Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip

Two days stay until Election Day, and Republicans are aiming to instrumentality power of the Senate and expand their majority.

Democrats clasp a 51-49 advantage, which Republicans person already sliced into with their pending triumph successful West Virginia. That leaves them needing lone 1 much spot to triumph backmost the precocious chamber, with Montana and Ohio being the premier targets.

According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), the GOP has a 70 percent accidental of wrestling backmost the Senate. 

A fig of battleground races person tightened to dormant heats, and the show of erstwhile President Trump and Vice President Harris could besides play a relation successful the outcomes.

For the last clip of the 2024 cycle, present are the apical 5 seats apt to flip: 

Montana 

Republican Tim Sheehy, left, is successful presumption to topple Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester. (Ben Allan Smith, The Missoulian via Associated Press)

A triumph successful Montana means the bulk for the GOP, and the enactment has felt progressively bullish that Republican Tim Sheehy is successful presumption to topple Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

Montana is wide considered Republicans’ champion accidental astatine flipping a seat, extracurricular of West Virginia.

According to a recent survey by The Hill/Emerson College, Sheehy leads by 4 percent points (50 percent to 46 percent) implicit the three-term incumbent. And the Cook Political Report has the spot successful its “lean Republican” column.

Perhaps much indicative of wherever the contention stands is however each broadside has maneuvered their last spends. A apical GOP extracurricular radical precocious shifted astir $3 million from Montana to Nevada, wherever Republicans person seen immoderate last-minute tightening, showing assurance that Sheehy is acceptable to seal the deal. 

“I'm feeling definite astir Montana close now,” 1 Senate Republican told The Hill, noting that caller interior polls connected the GOP broadside person shown Sheehy holding a pb implicit Tester that is extracurricular the borderline of error. 

Democrats, however, don’t deliberation this contention is implicit contempt the nationalist polls. They are speedy to enactment that Montana is notoriously hard to canvass and accidental that Tester’s 2012 victory, his past tally successful a statesmanlike year, shows helium tin triumph contempt polls showing him down.

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), left, and Republican Bernie Moreno. (Jeff Dean and David Dermer, Associated Press)

The contention betwixt Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Republican Bernie Moreno has drawn to adjacent with Tuesday accelerated approaching.

A triumph successful Ohio would grow Republicans’ bulk and the contention has go the astir costly contention connected the Senate representation this year.

Brown held a dependable pb that lasted done Labor Day, buoyed by a monolithic vantage connected the airwaves, but the upwind appears to beryllium astatine Moreno’s backmost now. An average of polls from DDHQ and The Hill shows Moreno up by conscionable little than 1 percent point.

Republican operatives person argued that the contention is mirroring the inclination enactment of Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) contention 2 years ago. Vance trailed then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) passim the summertime and into October earlier overtaking and yet defeating him by 6 points.

They are besides counting connected a boost from Trump. The operatives accidental an 8-point triumph astatine the statesmanlike level should beryllium capable to propulsion Moreno crossed the decorativeness line.

Brown himself has reportedly told donors that an 8-point borderline is 1 that helium apt cannot overcome.

“Sherrod's an A [candidate] and Bernie's a C-,” 1 GOP operative progressive successful Senate races said. “But we should triumph it based connected gravity.” 

The Ohio contention is acceptable to go not lone the astir costly Senate contention this cycle, but of each time. The Georgia Senate contention successful 2020 betwixt Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and erstwhile Sen. David Perdue (R) attracted $412 million, with this contention set to eclipse the $500 cardinal mark. 

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), left, and Republican Eric Hovde. (Mark Schiefelbein and J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press file)

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is trying to bent connected for beloved beingness arsenic Republican Eric Hovde has brought the must-win contention for Democrats to a virtual dormant heat. 

Republicans are eyeing Wisconsin arsenic 1 of their champion pickup opportunities extracurricular of Montana and Ohio.

Baldwin, a two-term incumbent, ran up of Hovde passim overmuch of the cycle, but that pb has mostly disappeared arsenic GOP-leaning men person travel location to the Republican Party. The Cook Political Report rates the contention a “toss-up.”

Still, whether Hovde tin get implicit the last hump remains a large question. According to the last Marquette University Law poll, Baldwin holds a 2-point pb implicit the GOP nominee. Perhaps conscionable arsenic important, she is outrunning Harris by a flimsy margin. 

Democrats inactive spot enactment to bash successful the location stretch, and that centers connected turning retired Democratic-heavy Milwaukee.

“I deliberation you'll spot a existent absorption connected the metropolis of Milwaukee from Democrats up and down the ballot successful the last hours,” 1 Wisconsin-based Democratic operative said, pointing to Harris’s rally with Baldwin successful the metropolis connected Friday and different smaller events.

Republicans, meanwhile, spot Baldwin arsenic a generic Democrat who volition person occupation separating herself from the apical of the summons contempt what the Marquette canvass says. 

The race, overmuch similar respective of the "blue wall” states, besides depends connected the borderline astatine the apical of the ticket, with Hovde apt needing Trump to triumph with a large capable borderline to transportation him crossed the line. 

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) left, and David McCormick, the Republican nominee for Senate successful Pennsylvania. (Associated Press)

Defeating Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has been atop the privation database of Pennsylvania Republicans ever since helium knocked disconnected Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) astir 2 decades ago, and they easy person their champion accidental this week.

Casey has held a accordant borderline implicit Republican David McCormick into September, but has seen his pb sliced and diced to wherever it is present — astir deadlocked. 

While Republicans routinely enactment that toppling Casey is by nary means easy, they laud McCormick and his squad for however they’ve been capable to necktie the Democrat to Harris. 

The perceived inability to make separation is giving Democrats anxiousness arsenic they adjacent the end. 

“I ever thought Casey would bash similar 3 points amended than the apical of the ticket. But polling isn’t showing that. His numbers are the aforesaid arsenic Kamala’s,” 1 elder Pennsylvania Democrat said. “I’m surprised.” 

“Even [Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.)], who isn’t an incumbent, is moving amended than Bob and has immoderate separation with Harris,” the Democrat continued, saying if Trump wins Pennsylvania "by 1 past the Senate contention could decidedly spell Republican too.”

According to Decision Desk HQ, Casey leads by much than 2 percent points and has a 72 percent chance at nabbing a 4th term. 

Republicans are besides putting much musculus down their connection successful the last agelong arsenic they spent $16.2 cardinal past week compared to $11.9 cardinal by Democrats successful the second astir costly Senate race on the representation this cycle. 

Michigan

Michigan Senate campaigner Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), left, and erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). (Associated Press)

For a clip this fall, Republicans had believed that Michigan represented the party’s champion accidental astatine winning a non-Montana oregon non-Ohio race. 

Unlike races successful Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, the contention betwixt erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Slotkin does not diagnostic an incumbent aft Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) decided against seeking a 5th term, theoretically giving the GOP an vantage not seen elsewhere. 

However, Slotkin and Michigan person proved a pugnacious seed to crack. 

Operatives connected some sides of the aisle person acknowledged successful caller days that portion the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are each up for grabs, Michigan is astir apt the slightest apt of the 3 to flip arsenic the different states person narrowed much successful the last weeks. 

“Democrats successful Michigan tin triumph conscionable if they deed their numbers,” 1 GOP operative progressive successful Senate races said. “We tin beryllium cleanable successful Michigan, but if they deed their numbers, we lose.” 

Slotkin holds a 3.2-percentage constituent pb implicit Rogers, with Harris performing better there than successful either of the 2 different states, according to Decision Desk HQ. 

And nary Republican has won a Senate contention successful the Wolverine State successful 30 years.