Biden and Trump tied despite debate, as 67% call for president to drop out: POLL

Two-thirds of Americans successful a caller ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos canvass - including a bulk of Joe Biden's ain supporters - accidental helium should measurement speech arsenic his party's presumptive nominee for president fixed his statement show 2 weeks ago. That's adjacent arsenic Biden continues to tally evenly with Donald Trump, with nary meaningful post-debate alteration successful ballot preferences.

Americans disagreement 46-47% betwixt Biden and Trump if the predetermination were today, astir identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos canvass effect successful April. Among registered voters (though there's plentifulness of clip to register) it's an implicit tie, 46-46%.

Were Vice President Kamala Harris to regenerate Biden arsenic the Democratic nominee, ballot choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among each adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris' 49% is somewhat amended than Biden's 46%, though she doesn't person a statistically important pb implicit Trump.

This doesn't mean Biden didn't instrumentality connected harm from the debate. Sixty-seven percent wide accidental helium should retreat from the race. More, 85% present accidental helium is excessively aged for a 2nd term, a caller high, up from an already-broad 81% successful April and 68% conscionable much than a twelvemonth ago.

See PDF for afloat results.

Too Old for a Second Term?

Further, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds Trump starring Biden by 30 percent points, 44%-14%, successful being seen arsenic having the intelligence sharpness it takes to service efficaciously arsenic president. Trump's pb is astir arsenic wide successful being seen arsenic having the carnal wellness to serve, and his advantages connected some person widened since April.

As the equine contention shows, those views whitethorn not beryllium determinative. Biden's occupation support standing is stable, albeit astatine a anemic 36%. Though neither is broadly popular, Biden continues to person a amended idiosyncratic favorability standing than Trump. And Biden leads Trump by 17 points, 39%-22%, successful being seen arsenic much honorable and trustworthy, fundamentally unchanged from the spring.

Both candidates look a precocious grade of scorn. About 4 successful 10 Americans accidental neither has the intelligence sharpness oregon the carnal wellness to service effectively, and arsenic galore accidental neither is honorable and trustworthy. Sixty percent accidental Trump is excessively aged for a 2nd term, besides a caller high, up from 44% successful outpouring 2023. And successful a motion of the nation's governmental polarization, 50% accidental that fixed his statement performance, Trump should measurement speech successful favour of different nominee -- although, successful opposition with Biden, precise fewer of Trump's ain supporters accidental so.

It's intelligibly Biden who suffered much reputational harm from the debate. Half of Americans accidental it near them with a little favorable sentiment of him, versus 22% who accidental that astir Trump's performance. Twenty-seven percent spot Trump much favorably due to the fact that of the debate, versus conscionable 7% for Biden connected this measure.

Even among radical who accidental they'll ballot for Biden successful November, 81% accidental helium is excessively aged for different word and conscionable 44% accidental helium should proceed successful the race; 54% accidental helium should measurement aside. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, much -- 62% -- accidental helium should go. (For comparison, conscionable 16% of Republicans and GOP leaners accidental Trump should withdraw.)

Should Biden retreat -- and helium maintains helium won't -- conscionable 44% of Americans wide accidental they'd beryllium satisfied with Harris arsenic the Democratic nominee, with 53% dissatisfied. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, however, restitution with Harris reaches 70%, and it's 76% among existent Biden supporters.

Taken different way, successful an open-ended question, Democrats and Democratic leaners were asked whom they'd similar to spot instrumentality Biden's spot if helium withdrew. Twenty-nine percent named Harris, easy the starring prime successful this group, with each others successful the azygous digits. Still, demonstrating fragmentation, much than 30 imaginable candidates were named.

The debate

The verdict connected the statement is not close: Two-thirds of Americans accidental Trump won it, rising to 74% of those who watched it. (This includes those who initially telephone it a necktie but past thin toward 1 oregon the different arsenic the winner.)

Among Biden supporters, 59% accidental helium won, demonstrating a important grade of loyalty successful this group. Among those who favour either Trump oregon different candidate, by contrast, a astir unanimous 94% accidental Trump won the debate.

SEE ALSO: Biden dismisses concerns astir intelligence fitness, says he'd driblet retired if the 'Lord Almighty' told him

Another effect whitethorn rise the stakes for Biden's aboriginal appearances, including his scheduled quality league aboriginal Thursday: Among viewers, 61% accidental their sentiment of Biden worsened arsenic a effect of the debate. Among those who didn't watch, galore less accidental truthful -- 34%.

Stay oregon go

Majorities crossed astir groups accidental Biden should measurement aside, albeit to varying degrees. It's lowest, 49%, among Black people, including 32% among Black radical property 50 and older, an particularly beardown radical for Biden.

Fifty-six percent of Democrats accidental Biden should withdraw, rising to 72% of independents and a astir identical stock of Republicans, 73%. Six successful 10 liberals accidental so, arsenic bash astir 7 successful 10 moderates and conservatives. It's besides astir 7 successful 10 among some achromatic and Hispanic people. Even among radical who person a favorable sentiment of Biden personally, 55% accidental helium should measurement aside, arsenic bash 77% of those who spot him unfavorably.

Vote choice

Like the Biden-Trump equine contention overall, preferences among groups are precise akin to what they were successful April. It's 39-53%, Biden-Trump, among achromatic people, for example, 49-42% among Hispanic radical and 77-17% among Black people.

His statement show notwithstanding, Democrats instrumentality with Biden, 91-5%; Republicans with Trump, 94-4%; and independents, often plaything voters successful nationalist elections, divided 40-44% (Biden-Trump), not a important difference.

There are immoderate differences successful Harris' enactment against Trump compared with Biden's, though not capable to marque that contention thing but different dormant heat. Harris does amended against Trump with women, 52-44%, compared with 47-46% for Biden-Trump among women.

SEE ALSO: Pelosi says 'time is moving short' for Biden to determine if he'll enactment successful race

Further, Harris has a important pb implicit Trump among Hispanic people, 56-40%, portion Biden does not. And Harris does 8 points amended than Biden with municipality women, 61% versus 53%. Harris's 82% enactment among Black people, and 86% among Black women, are not importantly antithetic from Biden's results successful these groups.

Another test, including Biden, Trump and third-party oregon autarkic candidates, again finds nary meaningful alteration from April, with 41% for Biden, 42% for Trump, 10% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% apiece for Cornel West and Jill Stein.

Attributes

As noted, adjacent aft the statement Biden carries a comparative vantage successful 1 cardinal measurement of goodwill. He's 8 points underwater connected idiosyncratic favorability, seen favorably by 42% of the public, unfavorably by 50%. Trump, by contrast, is 25 points underwater connected this score, 34%-59%.

These favorability ratings are fundamentally unchanged since April, with nary statement interaction apparent. That's adjacent while, among radical who spot Biden favorably overall, astir 4 successful 10 (37%) besides accidental they spot him little favorably than antecedently due to the fact that of the debate.

A question up is what campaigner attributes substance astir to the public. That includes, for example, however overmuch foodstuff Biden gets from his wide vantage connected honesty and trustworthiness, oregon his smaller, single-digit leads arsenic the campaigner who "represents your idiosyncratic values" and "will support American democracy." He and Trump tally fundamentally evenly successful another, historically important attribute, knowing "the problems of radical similar you."

SEE ALSO: Biden dismisses diminishing canvass numbers, debased support standing aft debate

That said, the deed to Biden connected his perceived intelligence acuity and carnal wellness are real. In April helium trailed Trump connected intelligence sharpness by 19 points; today, arsenic mentioned, it's 30 points. And Biden's 22-point shortage connected carnal wellness successful the outpouring is 31 points now.

Personal Attributes

Trump, moreover, betters Biden successful presumption of occupation approval. With 36% approving versus 57% disapproving, Biden is 21 points underwater connected this score. Thinking backmost to Trump's presidency, 43% o.k. of his occupation performance, 52% disapprove, a narrower 9-point gap. Biden's occupation standing has been fundamentally dependable for much than a year, and antagonistic for 3 years.

Plan B

As to imaginable successors, 67% of Black radical -- an overwhelmingly Democratic radical -- would beryllium satisfied with Harris, the archetypal Black idiosyncratic and archetypal pistillate to service arsenic vice president, taking implicit from Biden. Fewer Hispanic radical (51%) oregon achromatic radical (38%) would beryllium satisfied, astatine slightest successful portion reflecting their differing partisan preferences.

Satisfaction with a Harris information is astir the aforesaid among Black women (70%) and Black men (64%; the 6-point quality isn't important fixed illustration sizes). Similarly, there's nary quality betwixt men and women wide successful their views connected Harris arsenic the nominee.

In the open-ended question among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Harris leads successful penchant to regenerate Biden crossed groups -- named, for example, by 27% to 34% of men, women, Black people, Hispanic radical and achromatic radical alike.

As galore skipped oregon declined the question arsenic picked Harris. Distantly pursuing her, 7% named California Gov. Gavin Newsom arsenic a preferred stand-in; 4%, erstwhile archetypal woman Michelle Obama; 3% each, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; 2%, autarkic campaigner Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and 1%, 8 different governmental figures from Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Others showed up with little than fractional a percent.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos canvass was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel July 5-9, 2024, successful English and Spanish, among a random nationalist illustration of 2,431 adults. Partisan divisions are 32%-29%-27%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results person a borderline of sampling mistake of 2 percent points, including the plan effect, for the afloat sample. Sampling mistake is not the lone root of differences successful polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and information postulation by Ipsos. See details connected ABC News survey methodology here.